War Fears Hit Markets—Oil’s Explosive Spike Was Just the Opening Act

June 13, 2025

It’s your Friday recap—where we decode what smart money just did, which sectors got rerated, and what that means for your positioning next week.

This time, the market didn’t move on earnings or economic data. It moved on fear. And institutions acted fast.

Let’s break it down.

📊 Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 (SPY): ▲ +0.38%

  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): ▲ +0.25%

  • Dow Jones (DIA): ▲ +0.24%

All three indexes climbed Thursday, continuing their upward trend. But beneath the surface, money rotated hard into energy, defense, and safe havens.

Sector

QRI Signal

Insight

Energy

🟢 Accumulating

Brent crude surged ~13% intraday—XOM, SLB, and refiners saw large flows

Defense

🟢 Accumulating

LMT and RTX drew block buying on escalating war fears

Tech

🔴 Distributing

QQQ leadership wavered as investors hedged rate & macro risk

Staples

⚪ Neutral

Slight bid, but not the safe haven play it once was

Utilities

⚪ Neutral

Defensive bias unclear—rotation skipped past this sector

🔍 Smart Money Highlights

🔦 Dark Pool Activity

  • XOM, SLB, VLO: Institutions piled in as crude spiked—this wasn’t a retail reaction.

  • LMT: Repeated dark-pool prints as smart money anticipated policy shift and spending.

🧾 Insider Transactions

  • RTX: Multiple insiders added to positions—signaling a long-view on geopolitical tailwinds.

  • ENPH: Silence amid volatility—possibly a lack of conviction despite solar upside.

⚖ Unusual Options Flow

  • GLD: Large call sweeps into July/Aug—classic safe-haven rotation

  • QQQ: Sharp increase in $530–540 puts ahead of volatility spikes

📈 Smart Money Watchlist

🟢 XOM – Brent breakout plus dark-pool flows = conviction energy play
🟢 LMT – Defense sector flows building quietly ahead of retail interest
🔴 TSLA – Volatility surge + put flow = sentiment getting cautious

📌 What This Means for You

If you're overweight tech/growth:

Consider trimming 5–10% short-term. Volatility is creeping in, and rotation is real.

If you’re underexposed to energy and defense:

Begin building exposure—this geopolitical premium may linger longer than expected.

Avoid late-cycle staples/utilities for now:

These haven’t absorbed fear flows the way many expected—wait for better pricing or macro shifts.

🗺 Macro Logic (Cause & Effect)

  • Israel–Iran strike → Oil up ~13% → Inflation tail risk repriced

  • Global fear → Gold, USD, bond demand → Portfolio rebalancing begins

  • Smart money isn't chasing headlines—they're repositioning before CPI/PCE impact

🗓 Events to Watch

  • June 18: Fed Chair Powell speaks — how will war risk affect his tone?

  • June 18: Jobless Claims — key gauge for soft landing narrative

  • June 27: Core PCE Inflation — oil-driven headline risk is back

Closing Thought:

“Markets don’t crash on war—they crash when no one is positioned for it.”

Smart money didn’t flinch—they moved. The next few weeks will show whether fear or fundamentals drive the next leg.

Best,
StocksTrades.AI Newsletter

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.