⚠️ Run This AI Prompt Before Your Stocks Blow Up

May 12, 2025

Imagine stress-testing every stock in your portfolio by simulating how it might crash — before it actually does.

Today, we're showing you how to use ChatGPT like a hedge fund analyst to uncover five realistic bear-case scenarios that could lead to a 30%+ drawdown in any stock you own.

🧠 The AI-Powered Stock Pre-Mortem

Most investors obsess over upside.

But professional investors?

They obsess over downside — and they model it before they buy.

This is where ChatGPT becomes your edge.

Using the right prompt, you can instruct it to act like a bearish analyst, simulate forward-looking risks, and tell you exactly what could go wrong in the next 12 months.

Let’s walk through a live example...

🔎 NVIDIA ($NVDA): Bear-Case Simulation

Scenario 1: Hyperscalers Go Solo

  • What happens: Amazon, Meta, and Google shift faster to their own AI chips, reducing reliance on NVIDIA GPUs.

  • Why it matters: These customers account for ~40% of NVDA's data center revenue.

  • Impact: A 15–20% hit to revenue = multiple compression from 40x to ~28x. That alone could trigger a 30–35% drawdown.

  • Signals to watch: Internal chip hires, TPU announcements, hyperscaler AI efficiency comments.

Scenario 2: U.S.–China Tech War Expands

  • What happens: The U.S. adds new export restrictions that limit NVDA’s access to emerging markets or AI firms in allied countries.

  • Why it matters: China was a major buyer before the first wave of restrictions.

  • Impact: Shrinking TAM + headline risk = sudden sentiment reversal.

  • Signals to watch: BIS regulation changes, Taiwan trade news, NVDA earnings call tone.

Scenario 3: AI ROI Starts Disappointing

  • What happens: Enterprise customers pause AI rollouts due to unclear returns or infra inefficiencies.

  • Why it matters: Much of NVDA’s valuation assumes durable growth in AI training spend.

  • Impact: If growth slows, the stock’s “AI multiple” vanishes — think Zoom/Shopify in 2021.

  • Signals to watch: CIO surveys, cloud spend commentary, sell-side revisions.

Scenario 4: Foundry or Product Delays

  • What happens: TSMC yield issues delay rollout of Blackwell chips.

  • Why it matters: NVIDIA is deeply dependent on Taiwan-based supply chains.

  • Impact: Missed launches lead to margin erosion and customer shifts to AMD.

  • Signals to watch: TSMC earnings, delayed delivery timelines, soft product guidance.

Scenario 5: Antitrust Hits the CUDA Moat

  • What happens: Regulators target NVIDIA’s control over AI infrastructure via CUDA.

  • Why it matters: CUDA’s software moat is critical to lock-in — forced unbundling would hurt margins.

  • Impact: Margin compression = multiple haircut.

  • Signals to watch: EU/FTC investigations, lawsuits, bundling disclosures.

✅ Use This Method for Any Stock You Own

This isn't just for NVDA.

With the right prompt, you can apply this same bear-case lens to any stock — before earnings, before adding to a position, or before entering long-term holds.

Think of it as insurance for your portfolio.

👉 Want the exact prompt that built this analysis?

It’ll be available this week in the Pro version of StocksTrades.AI.

Stay sharp. Think ahead. Invest with conviction.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.