Is the “American Century” Over?

July 21, 2025

“The long American century is over. Place your bets on China.”

Global strategist Louis-Vincent Gave is sounding the alarm: U.S. market dominance may have peaked.

His call? Reallocate capital from traditional Western assets—particularly private equity and real estate—into emerging markets like China, India, and the Global South, especially sectors tied to AI infrastructure and financial modernization.

But is this a contrarian bet or a forward-looking shift?

📈 Why This Matters for Medium-to-Long-Term Investors

For decades, the U.S. has been the gravitational center of global capital.

But with:

  • Slowing U.S. productivity,

  • Rising fiscal deficits,

  • Fractured geopolitics and trade policies,

  • And increasing innovation across emerging economies...

…investors may need to rethink their geographic and sector exposure heading into 2026 and beyond.

🔍 How to Tactically Tilt Toward Emerging Markets

✅ 1. China Financials & AI Infrastructure

  • Opportunities: State-owned banks, cloud data centers, payment platforms, chip producers.

  • Examples: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK), Alibaba Cloud, ICBC.

  • Risks: Political oversight, opaque regulation, U.S.-China tensions.

  • Strategy Tip: Use diversified ETFs (like KBA, CXSE) or large-cap ADRs for cleaner exposure.

✅ 2. ASEAN Infrastructure & Commodities

  • Opportunities: Indonesia (nickel), Vietnam (manufacturing), India (digital rail, EV supply chain).

  • Examples: Adani Ports, Petronas, PLN, VinFast (selective).

  • Strategy Tip: Look for funds targeting Asia ex-China or frontier markets (e.g., ASEA, FM).

✅ 3. Offshore Renminbi Bonds & Currency Hedges

  • Why: The RMB is becoming more internationalized, and yuan-based assets offer FX diversification.

  • How: Explore RMB-denominated bond ETFs or FX-hedged EM equity funds.

🛡 Risk Management: What to Watch

Risk Type

Mitigation

Currency Risk

Use FX-hedged vehicles or limit position sizing.

Geopolitical Tensions

Avoid single-country bets; diversify regionally.

Transparency/Regulation

Stick to top-tier, audited firms or ETFs with strong compliance screens.

Liquidity Risk

Ensure positions are in liquid funds or ADRs, not thinly traded local equities.

🧭 The Bigger Picture

While U.S. equities will likely remain core to most portfolios, the next wave of secular growth could be driven by:

  • Middle-class expansion across Asia,

  • AI adoption in underdeveloped financial systems,

  • And realignment of global trade flows away from U.S. hegemony.

A 5–15% portfolio tilt toward emerging markets could be a prudent way to capture this trend—especially if investors apply valuation discipline and diversification safeguards.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.